Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Gallup Daily

You may have heard that Gallup Daily is now giving us their numbers three ways. Here are their registered voter numbers for today:

Obama 51
McCain 42

They now have two likely voter models. Their traditional model reflects past voting behavior in addition to current intentions; the downside of this model is that it excludes people who have registered recently. This model, called Likely Voter Model I indicates:

Obama 51
McCain 45

The second likely voter model, Likely Voter Model II is based on no factor save the voter's expressed intention to vote this year:

Obama 53
McCain 43

Now notice, based upon the expressed intention to vote, the margin between Obama and McCain actually is wider than the margin between the two candidates among registered voters.


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