Saturday, October 18, 2008

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen yesterday saw the race as 50 to 46, and his numbers are statistically the same today as where they were yesterday, though the spread today is not four but rather five:

Obama 50
McCain 45

Rasmussen observes:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month.
The numbers from last night's polling in the Research 2000/Daily Kos brought Obama's numbers a bit closer to Rasmussen's. They now report a seven point race:

Obama 50
McCain 43

Comments DemFromCT:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +10 Wed, +6 Thurs and +7 Fri. Today's polling will reflect the debate (two thirds of the sample is post-debate). Obama has been at 50 or more since 9/29. As noted yesterday, a +12 Obama day rolled off and was replaced with a +7.
Zogby's numbers also indicate the race has tightened with Obama's number reduced from 49 to 48 between yesterday and today:

Obama 48
McCain 44

What's interesting about these three polls is that they show McCain at 43, 44, and 45 while two of them show Obama at 50. The real movement right now, my guess is, is among Republicans who have decided to come home to McCain as the result of his less erratic performance in last Wednesday's debate.


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