Monday, October 27, 2008

First trackers of the day

All three morning trackers suggest that a week out from the national election, the polls have tightened. Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 46

The numbers couple of days have been at Rasmussen's year-long high, 52-45. Rasmussen observes:
Obama’s five-point advantage is down from an eight-point lead yesterday but up a point from the lead he held a week ago. With today’s results, Obama has been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 32 straight days
Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 52-40. Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +11 Friday, +9 Sat and +5 Sunday, with a +14 Thursday sample rolling off. Tomorrow's sample will replace a +11, so further tightening is possible.
As a statistical matter, Zogby sees Obama's and McCain's numbers as essentially stable:

Obama 50
McCain 45

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-44. Zogby describes the overall trends this way:
Obama leads among independents by 13 points, those who have already voted by 24 points, new voters by 27 points, Hispanics by 48 points and Catholics by 13 points. McCain holds a slight 2-point lead among men and has increased his lead among white voters to 13 points.


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