Sunday, October 26, 2008

Research 2000/Daily Kos Tracker

As I mentioned below in the post on Zogby's numbers, today's trackers are coming to you piecemeal.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports that their three-day rolling tracker looks like this:

Obama 51
McCain 40

The numbers yesterday were 52-40. Daily Kos poll meiester, DemFromCT, observes:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +14 Thurs, +11 Friday and +9 Sat.

Both Zogby and R2K show slight McCain movement, but despite Zogby's breathless "it's getting CLOSER!", it's not clear that that's true in any meaningful way. Since this seems to be a 7-8 point race right now, I'd expect all the polls to start converging by next weekend. However, since some are using a 2004 electorate model (Zogby, IBD/TIPP, Gallup traditional), we may see tightening faster in those. Since we all expect tightening of some sort as those last few undecideds decide, at least in some polls, be prepared for the "It's tightening!" headlines. A close race is good for ratings.
I think we're in an excellent position as we move into the last week of the race.


Post a Comment