Thursday, August 21, 2008

One More Tidbit on NBC/WSJ Poll

I know we went poll-crazy here yesterday, but there was one more tidbit that got overlooked in the frenzy last night. With the ugly numbers that we woke up to, many rejoiced at the numbers from the NBC/WSJ and CBS/NYT polls putting giving Obama a 3 point lead, 45-42.

The Clinton factor

Yet perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama’s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else.

What’s more, those who backed Clinton in the primaries — but aren’t supporting Obama right now — tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and have more confidence in McCain’s ability to be commander-in-chief.

For these reasons, Hart believes that Clinton’s speech on the Tuesday night of the Democratic convention will be a significant event. “The Democratic convention is more than a coronation,” he says. “It is an event where the words of Hillary Clinton are probably going to be exceptionally important.”

Hart adds, “The Hillary Clinton campaign may be over, but the Clinton factor remains an important part of the election.”
Last night, someone at MyDD was quick to inform me that KO had pointed at the NBC/WSJ numbers which showed that 49% of voters did not want Hillary as president, ever. But I'm guessing that KO didn't left another inconvenient finding out of his analysis.
It’s also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent. But she remains a polarizing figure: 49 percent say they don’t want to see her as president someday, and 42 percent view her favorably versus 41 percent who see her in a negative light.
No doubt there are people who rejoiced at yesterday's numbers and maybe even saw an opening for Hillary on the ticket or even as a surprise nominee next week. I am already on the record as opposing a unity ticket and I have dismissed any possibility of Hillary being resurrected in 2008. I write about polling because (a) I am a statistics dork and I find the number-crunch fascinating and (b) I want reinforce the message that this election won't be a cakewalk.

If that doesn't square with your image of Psychodrew as a bitter Clintonista with "unresolved issues," so be it. I'll continue speaking my mind. And you continue speaking yours.

FYI, those of you who told me yesterday that is the only decent polling outfit might want to read the update to yesterday's pantsuit post.


Post a Comment