Monday, October 13, 2008

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen shows a steady race:

Obama 50
McCain 45

Rasmussen observes:
The data continues to suggest a very stable race with Obama as the clear frontrunner. This is the eighteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%
Research 2000/Daily Kos similarly shows a steady race

Obama 52
McCain 40

DemFromCT notes:
Obama's percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29.
Battleground/GWU similarly calls it a steady race with their numbers the same as they were at the last report:

Obama 51
McCain 43

Diageo Hotline has its numbers out:

Obama 48
McCain 42

Significantly, I think, the poll observes, "The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI."

I think the point here and point there variations we have seen in the polls over the last several weeks represent nothing but normal statistical fluctuations in the data. People who look at polls like to focus on the margins between the candidates, and those data certainly are consequential, but I have seen almost no one commenting about the relentless consistency of Obama's lead. Except for a short period after the Republican convention, Obama invariably has bested McCain in almost every single poll for the last four-and-a-half months. I think that is the most important fact before us just three weeks before the presidential election. As Shakespeare surmised, "What is past is prologue."


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