Monday, October 27, 2008

Periodic guestimate on Georgia early voting

The Georgia Election Board reports that 1,056,352 have voted in Georgia in early voting, among them 371,017 African Americans.

Let's assume that African Americans give 95 percent of their votes to Obama and five percent to McCain. Let's also assume that 30% of Other Race/Ethnicities vote 30% for Obama and 70% for McCain. These then would be the current numbers:

Obama
352,466 African Americans
205,600 Other
_______
558,066

McCain
18,551 African Americans
479,735 Other
________
498,286

Given my assumptions, which admittedly are based on nothing more substantial than the color of the ether, Obama would lead McCain 53% to 47% in early voting.

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