Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Gallup Daily

Gallup Daily is out for Wednesday, October 22:

Registered Voters
Obama 51
McCain 42

McCain's number in this metric yesterday where the numbers were 52-41.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)
Obama 52
McCain 44

Yesterday, the expanded likely voter model showed a 52-42 spread, so Obama has stayed the same as McCain moved up slightly. Yesterday's 10-point spread in this model is now an eight-point spread

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 50
McCain 45

Yesterday, the traditional model showed only a seven-point split, 51-44; it's now a five-point spread.

The movement today likely represents noise in the data, but Obama enjoys a lead in all three models, with his lead in the expanded likely voter model about equal to his lead in the registered voter model.


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