Friday, October 24, 2008

Gallup looks at early voting trends

Gallup is looking at early voting trends. It currently estimates that 11 percent of registered voters have voted. They anticipate that 19% of registered voters will have voted early by the time early voting concludes. Currently, 69% of registered voters intend to cast a ballot; were that to happen, this election would have unprecedented turnout. Here are some interesting trends that Gallup is finding among early voters:

1. As a percentage of their candidate preference, Obama and McCain voters are equally likely to vote early. Currently, 10 percent of Obama voters have cast a ballot and nine percent of McCain voters have case a ballot.

2. While "equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample." In other words, without exactly saying it, Gallup is suggesting that Obama must be ahead by roughly seven points in early voting.

Gallup concludes:
If McCain gains rapidly in the days left, Obama benefits, since Obama can't lose votes he has already received.
Of course, at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a sign that McCain is gaining, rapidly or otherwise.


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