Sunday, October 19, 2008

Good News from Gallup Daily

Gallup Daily has great news:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 42

Obama's number in this metric move up by two points over yesterday where the numbers were 50-42.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)
Obama 51
McCain 44

This model shows Obama's number increase by a point while McCain's number decreased by two from yesterday to today. Yesterday's spread, just four points (50-46) is now seven points.

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 49
McCain 46

This is the first move we have seen in this model's projection over the span of several days. Prior to today, it showed only a two-point split, 49-47.

We may hear from IBD/TIPP later in the day, but I am not clear yet about its publishing behavior. In any event, the current spreads are these:

Zogby, Obama +3
Rasmussen, Obama +6
Diageo Hotline, Obama +7
Gallup Expanded Model, Obama +7
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +7

Talking Points Memo observes:
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-43.9%, a lead of six points, compared to the 49.5%-44.3% Obama lead from yesterday.
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