Thursday, October 9, 2008

First trackers of the day

First, the polls that see the race as getting tighter:

Rasmussen has the race one point tighter than it was yesterday and three points points tighter than it was two days ago:

Obama 50
McCain 45

On Tuesday, Rasmussen saw the race at 52-44; yesterday, he saw it 51-45. It seems that Rasmussen sees the changes as probably statistical noise, for he observes:
The race remains quite stable--for the past fourteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day while McCain has been at 44% of 45%.
Battleground/GWU also sees Obama declining one point over yesterday and McCain staying steady at 45:

Obama 48
McCain 45

Now polls that seem to suggest an improvement in Obama's position over McCain:

Reuters/Zogby reports the race is a couple points wider than it reported yesterday. The numbers yesterday suggested a two-point spread at Obama 47, McCain 45. Today, the numbers suggest a four-point spread:

Obama 48
McCain 44

The three day numbers from Research 2000/Daily are actually in the same place they were yesterday, but I'll make a note about the internals in a second:

Obama 51
McCain 41

DemFromCT at dkos observes about the internals that Obama had a very good night of polling last evening:
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +9 Mon, +8 Tues and +12 Wed.
Though the three day numbers have a standard error of +/-3.0, the numbers from any one day of the three day rolling total is +/-5.1%.


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