Thursday, October 9, 2008

Diageo-Hotline Sez: It Isn't Close Anymore

Remember when the Diageo-Hotline Poll suddenly tightened early this week? No, it didn't happen because they saw another "McSurge". No, they reconfigured their partisan weighting to 40% Democrat & 38% Republican, I guess to match the turnout in November 2004.

Now take the closer weighting into consideration as I show you today's numbers (check the web site at 9:00 AM PT when the numbers officially go public)...

Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 41%

That's one hell of a bounce in one day! Obama's gone from a near-tie to 6% ahead! Obviously, the debate helped.

I just wonder now if the folks at Diageo-Hotline regret reweighting their poll to include more Republicans. Perhaps they thought their numbers leaned too Democratic, but they forgot that this is a Democratic year with a strong Democratic candidate. Sure, I guess anything can happen in the next 26 days. But absent another "October Surprise" that's unlike all the other surprises we've had this campaign season, I'm starting to think the other 3 major trackers (Research 2000, Rasmussen, & Gallup) are onto something here. ;-)


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