Friday, October 10, 2008

Zogby and Battleground/GWU

To add one poll to atdnext's synopsis, Zogby also sees Obama's lead increasing:

Obama 48
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 48-44. One note on the Zogby numbers: Jerome Armstrong at MyDD has access to the internals, and he observes that Zogby "weights party ID by 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26% Independent." I think the Democratic numbers may be correct, but I am willing to bet the Republican numbers are a little high, which makes the independent numbers a little low. Given that Obama leads among Democrats and independents, my wild guess is that a readjustment of Zogby's numbers would give us something more like what we have been seeing in Gallup and R2K.

Meanwhile, Battleground/GWU sees McCain beginning to tank. Its numbers this morning look a little more like the R2K numbers:

Obama 48
McCain 38

McCain two points below 40 is an astonishing finding.


Post a Comment