Monday, October 20, 2008

Good News from Gallup Daily

Gallup Daily has great news:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

McCain's number in this metric moved down by one point below yesterday where the numbers were 52-42.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)
Obama 52
McCain 43

Yesterday, the expanded likely voter model showed a 51-44 spread, so Obama has moved up as McCain moved down. Yesterday's seven-point spread in this model is now a nine-point spread

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 50
McCain 45

Yesterday, the traditional model showed only a three-point split, 49-46; it's now opened a five-point spread, much the same as we are seeing in other models, which makes me wonder if they are applying a traditional model to their data, something not supported by reports of early voting activity.

So to recap today's tracking polls:

Rasmussen, Obama +4
Hotline, Obama +5
Zogby, +6
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +8
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +9

Talking Points Memo observes:
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.1%-43.7%, a lead of 6.4 points, compared to the 49.9%-43.9% Obama lead from yesterday.
These data would suggest that Obama increased his standing since yesterday by 0.4 percent when the weighted average was 6.0.


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