Monday, October 20, 2008

Rasmussen: Obama by 10 in Virginia; Suffolk: Obama by Nine in Ohio

The poll data today:

Rasmussen today released new data on Virginia

Obama 54
McCain 44

Suffolk University has exciting results from Ohio

Obama 51
McCain 42

What makes this finding more compelling is that Suffolk separately polled a bellwether Ohio county, Perry County, and found Obama leading there by four points. Suffolk provides this compelling piece of information about their bellwether methodology:
In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.


CorgiGuy said...

this polls drive me whacky. how can anyone believe any of these tracking polls when they constantly contradict each other? what seems to be consistenet is that obama at 50-51 and McCain peaks at 45. Also the polls don't show the effect of Barr and Nader which i suspect will hurt mccain.

DCDemocrat said...

They're actually more or less reflect one anothers' margins of error. They really are telling the same story from a statistical viewpoint.

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