Monday, October 20, 2008

Noisy Monday: First trackers of the day

As far as I can see, movement in the polls on Monday seems to be just random statistical fluctuations. Rasmussen and Hotline see the race tightening while R2K and Zogby see Obama's lead growing.

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 46

The numbers yesterday were 51-45.

Rasmussen observes:
Obama has been at the 50% level of support for seven of the past eight days while McCain has been at 45% or 46%.
Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 42

These numbers yesterday were 50-43.

DemFromCT comments:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Fri, +7 Sat and +8 Sun. Today's polling will not completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement (or the less important but still politically potent announcement of Obama's 150 million Sep. fundraiser); more reflective data on that will start tomorrow.
Headline-loving, financial bottom-line driven pollster John Zogby, no less erratic than John McCain dealing with a financial crisis or picking a running mate, sees the race this way:

Obama 50
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 48-45, a spread he trumpeted as the the decline and fall of the Obama campaign. In a galling testimony of his cynical hackery, he titles his article about the "reverse" in the race, "Is Mobama Back?"Diageo Hotline bucks the trend and sees a tightening race with Obama decreasing a point and McCain rising a point:

Obama 47
McCain 42

On four successive days, they have reported Obama numbers as 50, 49, 48, and 47. Meanwhile, they have reported for McCain 40, 42, 41, 42.

My guess is that the race is stable, and all the fluctuations we see in today's first trackers are just so much statistical flotsam and jetsam.


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