Sunday, October 19, 2008

Obama Up! Obama Stable! Obama Down! First Trackers of the Day

Take your pick:

Obama up! Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 50-45.

Rasmussen observes:
This is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final Presidential debate and shows that the race continues to remain quite stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-four straight days while McCain’s total has been between 44% and 46% during those days.
Obama stable! Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 43

These are the same numbers we saw yesterday.

DemFromCT comments:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll . . . Obama was up +6 Thurs, +7 Fri and +7 Sat. Today's polling will reflect the debate (all of the sample is post-debate). With a few more days of data, we can better gauge where we are, though as of now, this looks to be a stable position. Obama has been at 50 or more since 9/29.
Obama down! Zogby sees the race this way:

Obama 48
McCain 45

Yesterday, the numbers were 48-44. OG Liberal posts a comment at concerning the internal numbers for Zogby:
I have all the internals.

The Party ID split is 38-36-26 (D-R-I). Zogby uses a methodology which appears to much closer to Gallup traditional which yesterday showed Obama +2, than Gallup Expanded which showed Obama +4, than Gallup (RV) which showed Obama +8. Bottom line is that with RV movement strongly favoring Dems is key states, that polls which discount RV, which Zogby does, underestimate strength of candidate associated with new RV momentum, in this case the Dems.

Also notable is that Zogby frequency for AA is identical to 2004. There is no assumption that race affinity would move this number.

Finally, inexplicable to me at least, is why Zogby weights gender as I posted above with 51% female where as in 2004 the split was 54% female. Again, this seems to me to suggest an an actual electorate which is consistent with census and not consistent with who will turn out on election day.

Be pleased to respond with specifics to pollsters on the internals from this poll.


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